After putting together a 2019 season of historic proportions, it’s no secret Gerrit Cole has positioned himself nicely for a monster payday this offseason. The 29-year-old ace right-handed starting pitcher is only perhaps rivaled on the free-agent market by Stephen Strasburg and Madison Bumgarner, but his sturdier record of durability will factor into what turns out to be this offseason’s richest guaranteed offer.
A three-time All-Star, Cole went 20-5 this past season, leading the American League in ERA (2.50), strikeouts (326), and K/9 ratio (13.8). In his 212.1 innings of work, he permitted 142 hits and 48 walks, good for an absurd 0.89 WHIP ratio.
Courtesy of Brooks Baseball, here’s a look at the data on his arsenal of pitches, including their velocity and movement:
We saw this full repertoire on display in the playoffs. He can raise the four-seamer above the zone to overpower hitters. He can tail a 95 mph sinker over the outside corner of the plate to a right-handed hitter. He can flutter a changeup to the outside corner of a lefty hitter. His slider in the upper 80s is thrown harder than most sliders typically are, and it behaves like a razor blade to both righties and lefties alike. Finally, for good measure, his curveball is a bonafide 12-6 hammer, typically around 83 mph. It’s about as complete of a profile as you can get for a right-handed power pitcher.
We know he’s good, and we know he’d be a welcome addition to any team in baseball. In terms of what’s best for the game, however, the Colorado Rockies should make every effort to sign him.
No, the Rockies do not have great luck with signing free-agent pitchers, and no, Coors Field is not a hospitable place for pitchers to pitch. As Adam Maahs of Fangraphs details in this highly informative piece, there’s ample evidence pointing to Denver’s air having an impact on the movement of pitches. Long story short: pitches break less in Colorado than they do at other ballparks.
As disconcerting as the science may seem to be, and as tired of a storyline as it may be that pitchers don’t do well in Colorado, what’s perhaps even more annoying is that the conversation about the Rockies seems to always stop there. “It’s a bad place for pitchers to pitch”, so, I guess, we all just collectively agreed the Rockies should make no effort to acquire better starting pitchers. There’s no point in trying, so they should just give up. Glorious, that sounds like so much fun.
Let’s take a step away from that narrative and assume the Rockies’ ownership group has the best of intentions: to put a winning product on the field in 2020 and win a championship. Colorado has had no issues scoring runs over the last few years; the team’s Achilles' heel is perpetually its pitching.
In 2019 alone, the Rockies suffered through a 71-91 record. Their 5.56 team ERA, 1,576 hits allowed, and 270 home runs allowed were the most in the National League. They recorded the fewest strikeouts of any NL pitching staff with 1,264, and their 1.49 WHIP ratio was also worst in the NL. Compounding their issues with batted balls, the staff’s 589 walks issued was second-most in the NL as well. By the most important metrics, the Rockies can be said to have objectively been the worst pitching staff in the National League last year, if not, in all of baseball.
Colorado’s starting rotation is currently comprised of by the likes of Jon Gray, German Marquez, Pete Lambert, Chi-Chi Gonzalez, Anthony Senzatela, Jeff Hoffman and Kyle Freeland. Only Gray and Marquez figure to be locks for the 2020 rotation, while the rest will compete for spots in Spring Training. Cole would immediately slot in as the undisputed ace of the team, helping to eat innings and prevent overuse of the bullpen.
The Rockies ranked 12th in payroll across MLB in 2019, with player salaries totaling $157.1 million. Oddly enough, or perhaps this is a statement on the newfound frugality of front offices across baseball in general, if the Rockies were to do nothing between now and Spring Training, with the roster as it stands now, they’re currently projected to move up to 9th in those rankings despite tallying a lower payroll at $148.3M.
While the Rockies may be traditionally known as ‘mid-market’, remember franchise third baseman Nolan Arenado’s contract extension in February 2019. At eight years and $260 million, it’s no small commitment, and it illustrates that the ownership group is at least trying to give the illusion of competitiveness for the next few years.
That’s all fine and great, as Arenado is one of the best third basemen in recent memory. However, if the Rockies don’t want to keep wasting incredible offensive production, they’ll need to go after the best available pitcher on the market.
Sometimes you don’t need a fancy solution to a problem. Coors Field is the most difficult place for pitchers to pitch. Gerrit Cole is one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. He likely will not put up the same gaudy numbers he put up over the last two years in Houston, but the sheer improvement of his output over what other Rockies’ pitchers produce is worth chasing for a franchise that’s at an organizational crossroads.
One year into Arenado’s extension, the Rockies have a 71-91 record to show for it. The Dodgers figure to be favorites for the NL West in 2020, while the rest of the division is anything but certain. Although they’re improving, the Padres are still a ways away from contention. The D-backs appear to be mired in one of those quasi-rebuilds that’s not actually a rebuild, where the result is a perpetually boring .500 team. Given the Giants’ inexplicable lack of pursuit to re-sign their franchise postseason hero, Madison Bumgarner, we can likely assume San Francisco is deliberately tanking in 2020 as well. While the Dodgers have maintained the stranglehold on the division over the last few years, even they come with question marks, too. The NL West presents plenty of room for growth for the Rockies, should they attempt to seize opportunities for improvement.
From this point on, they either tear the entire team down in a rebuild, or try to find the right pieces to add on to their offensive juggernaut. We’ve all seen that the offense can play. The team needs pitching. Colorado needs to accept the cost necessary in luring prime pitching to Coors Field.
Colorado’s front office can start a new era in Rockies history by signing Gerrit Cole. They should make it a priority immediately.