Originally published January 12, 2016 by The Sports Quotient
By Louis Oprisa
It wasn’t all that long ago when Justin Upton’s name drew the same hushed trade rumors as Giancarlo Stanton. The 2005 first-overall draft pick as an 18-year old, all Upton did by age 21 was knock 26 homers, drive in 86 runs, and steal 20 bases in a breakout 2009 campaign, his second in the majors. Very few are unanimously seen as the “franchise player” of a team. Only players with five-tool ability earn that privilege, and for good reason, Upton was thought to have had that ability.
It didn’t pan out that way, though his next few seasons weren’t terrible by any measure. The lowest OPS he’s posted since 2010 was .785 with the Diamondbacks in 2012, but with a slash line of .280/.355/.430 to go along with 17 homers and 67 RBI, that output is plenty valuable. Still, there was always a lingering sense that Upton would go through a Stanton-esque surge and put up gargantuan power numbers.
Upton never maintained hitting for as high an average as in 2009. He actually hit for his lowest average in a full season this past 2015, slashing .251/.336/.454 while bopping 26 homers to go along with 81 RBI. At the age of 28 and in the midst of his prime, this is probably who Justin Upton is for the next few years: a consistently above league-average hitter with power and on-base skills to compensate.
He also swiped 19 bases in 2015, indicating he hasn’t abandoned the running game. His advantage not seen in many power-hitting outfielders is that he can sustain a decline in his contact ability, but his speed can still complement the threat of his power. These are important attributes for his free agency case.
Sometimes, these moments can have a disproportionate impact on a viewer’s perception of a player. Surely, the outfielder who can hit for power and also flash speed is an interesting and valuable breed. But this chart shows his free agency case isn’t that straight-forward:
Over the last three years, Upton has shown a consistent penchant for making contact with pitches in the strike zone, but in 2015 he fell off 10% in terms of contact with pitches off the plate. That doesn’t bode well for him as he ages, as it could indicate he got away with chasing pitches but is now unable to catch up to such pitches as a 28 year old.
Naturally, we can expect this to happen to hitters over time. They get older, they get slower, and they can’t rely on their raw talent as they once did. It’s nature. It’s the way of the world. It’s baseball.
This doesn’t mean that Justin Upton’s ability to make contact will completely erode in the next year, or that it will even erode completely in the next three to four years, but these sorts of tendencies don’t tend to randomly reverse. Justin Upton is more of a .250-.260 hitter than he is a .300 hitter, and the team looking to sign him is doing so more for his power and speed threat than his contact ability. Justin Upton is not going to hit .300 over the course of a full season for you, and he probably won’t hit 40 home runs for you.
Defensively, Fangraphs has him rated him at +8 DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) for his 2015 work in left field for the San Diego Padres. Upton originally played shortstop in high school, and the Diamondbacks hoped to turn him into a big-bodied yet fleet center fielder, something akin to a young Torii Hunter. That experiment ended in 2007 upon concluding a season split between AA and high-A ball, when he was moved full-time to right field.
He’s since developed into a serviceable defensive corner outfield in terms of range but has an arm suited for left field instead of right. Fangraph’s rARM (Fielding Bible’s Outfield Arm Runs Saved Above Average) has shown single digit negative numbers ranging from -1 to -4 every year he’s been in the big leagues. It simply means that one to four runners a year scored more than the average based on the results of his throwing, which is not terrible but certainly not a strength.
Why He Makes Sense for the Orioles
The Orioles’ current depth chart projects Nolan Reimold, Adam Jones, and Ryan Flaherty to be the starters from left to right in the outfield. This is not a serious plan to compete in the American League East. Flaherty is the clichéd all-glove, no-hit utility man with a career .215/.282/.365 slash line. Reimold is intriguing for having power potential, but his contact issues have him better suited to be a fourth or fifth outfielder. Both are in positions that require significant offensive production. And both belong on the bench. Baltimore also signed Korean outfielder Hyun Soo Kim, but it doesn’t seem as though he’ll be handed a starting job out of camp unless he has an excellent Spring Training.
Upton helps to fill part of the power vacuum left by the departure of Chris Davis. He and Mark Trumbo would represent the solution to a lineup missing Davis’ lingering threat for immediate offense.
Upton also would be moving from one of the worst places to hit, Petco Park, to one of the best, Camden Yards. According to ESPN’s MLB Park Factors, the Orioles home stadium was the third best stadium for hitters, while the Padres ballpark was 20th. Both stadiums have widely been seen as egregious examples of a stadium impacting roster construction. The Orioles always seem to have hitting but lack pitching, while up until 2015, the Padres consistently lacked offense but cobbled impressive pitching staffs out of reclamation projects.
Now in his prime, Justin Upton could latch onto a team he fills a gaping hole for, be near his family (he was born in Norfolk, Virginia), and play in a stadium where potentially five to ten of those long fly-ball outs at Petco Park become first-row home runs at Camden Yards. He may not hit north of .280 again, but he could hit north of 30 home runs in Baltimore. Adam Jones and Mark Trumbo can’t do it all by themselves. The lineup needs another power bat.
Per Baseball-Reference, the Orioles are projected to have $117.3 committed in payroll (though this depends on pending salary arbitration cases) for 2016. Signing Upton would likely drive them past the $140 million figure. That’s not territory they’re accustomed to being in, but it’s a price probably worth paying if they want to stay competitive in the AL East.
Originally posted on The Sports Quotient.